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Impact of Social and Institutional Indicators on the Homicide Rate in Ecuador: An Analysis Using Advanced Time Series Techniques
, Muntasir Murshed,

Over the last three decades, Ecuador has shifted from being one of the most violent coun- tries in Latin America to being one of the safest countries. Recently, however, it became a country with high rates of intentional homicides again. This research aims to examine the impact of social (economic progress and unemployment) and institutional (corrup- tion and government efficiency) indicators on the rate of intentional homicides in Ecuador during the 1990–2020 period. We use cointegration techniques with structural breaks and single-frequency Fourier cumulative causality models. The findings of the Hatemi (ME 35, 497–505) and as reported by Maki (ICJR, 30, 10–29) cointegration model show a long- term equilibrium relationship between five series. The structural breaks coincide with the application of public security policies and structural changes in this economy. In addition, we find a unique Fourier cumulative frequency causal relationship between the analyzed series. To reduce violent deaths, policy-makers must execute strategies that aim to improve the population’s quality of life, implement corruption control mechanisms, and promote government efficiency.

Social indicators · Institutional indicators · Homicide rates · Structural breaks
Journal or Conference Name
Social Indicators Research
Publication Year