This paper aims to identify the economic factors
that significantly affect the demand for and supply of housing in three
major cities in Turkey, such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. This study
uses monthly data ranges from January 2010 to December 2020 because of
the limited housing price data from each city. For smooth measurement,
the logarithm of all data except measurements of nominal interest rate,
real interest rate and inflation is used. This research uses the
Co-integration Analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to
investigate the macroeconomic variables’ effects on the demand and
supply. Mortgage credit volume, as a dependent variable, is influenced
by real per capita GDP, real house prices, projected inflation, and
nominal interest rates. On the contrary, the building site is used as a
dependent variable on the supply side that is determined by the real
housing price, the real interest rate, and the real cost of
construction. In the VECM model, the mortgage credit volume and
constriction cost were dominated by error correction variables, showing
the adjustment of disequilibrium towards an equilibrium point. In the
case of Ankara, supply-side variables have a long-term relationship.
Both housing demand and supply-related factors have a long-term impact
on the housing market in Istanbul and Izmir. Given a significant
p-value, the coefficient of C1 derived from system equations is
negative.