Scopus Indexed Publications

Paper Details


Title
Aerosol-Types Anomalies and their Role in Shaping Pre-Monsoon Precipitation Trends Over Nigeria

Author
, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam ,

Email

Abstract

“The impact of different aerosol optical thickness types (AOT-types) on pre-monsoon precipitation trends was analyzed using 40 years (1981–2020) of satellite precipitation and reanalysis (MERRA-2 and ERA5) datasets. The results, based on anomaly analysis and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests, indicate an increase in most AOT-types (Dust, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon, and Sea Salt) and a decrease in precipitation trends over most parts of Nigeria during the recent two decades (2001–2020). Dust (≈ 75%) was predominant, followed by Organic Carbon (≈ 12.5%) when averaged over the region. Statistical analysis revealed a significant relationship (p < 0.05) between all AOT types and precipitation across the entire domain, with negative correlations observed primarily in areas where precipitation trends have decreased. The relationships between absorbing AOT types and cloud fraction (CFr) were not statistically significant in the southern region. The location and impact of different AOT types, and their varying statistical relationships with precipitation and CFr, are linked to increased recent activities at emission sources and atmospheric dynamics (relative humidity and wind fields). High-altitude regions exhibited distortions in precipitation and CFr patterns, which might contribute to their nonlinear relationships with AOT-types. The findings highlight the dominant role of dust and organic aerosols, suggesting positive climate feedback due to increasing global warming, as evidenced by the reported increase in precipitation in northern Nigeria and a decrease in the south. Additionally, the rising total AOT trend could potentially distort the actual monsoon events (i.e., onset, duration, and cessation) if not properly monitored.


Keywords

Journal or Conference Name
Earth Systems and Environment

Publication Year
2025

Indexing
scopus