Scopus Indexed Publications

Paper Details


Title
Resource-Efficient Deep Ensembles for Structured Retail Time-Series Forecasting: A Case Study on Walmart Sales

Author
K. M. Arafat Islam,

Email

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting underpins inventory planning, promotions, and workforce scheduling in retail. Although deep learning has advanced time-series forecasting, structured retail data are still dominated by tree ensembles due to their strong accuracy–efficiency trade-offs. We introduce a resourceefficient deep ensemble tailored for structured sales forecasting. A compact MLP backbone feeds multiple heads trained with a diversity regularizer, and a lightweight residual corrector further refines predictions. On the Walmart weekly sales dataset, the proposed multihead ensemble matches the accuracy of a five-member deep ensemble while using about 80% fewer parameters and training 45× faster. The boosted variant further reduces error, reaching an RMSE within 2-3% of XGBoost while remaining compact. Ablation studies on ensemble size and diversity weight confirm robustness, residuals are centered with light tails, and a case study shows improved capture of holiday peaks. These findings demonstrate that efficient ensembling can make neural methods competitive for structured retail forecasting when both scale and cost matter.


Keywords

Journal or Conference Name
2025 IEEE 4th International Conference on Robotics, Automation, Artificial-Intelligence and Internet-of-Things, RAAICON 2025

Publication Year
2025

Indexing
scopus