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Paper Details


Title
Bayesian Wind Forecast Correction for Real-Time CVaR-Based UAV Path Replanning Using Onboard Telemetry

Author
, Abu Shahed Shah Md Nazmul Arefin,

Email

Abstract

Public weather APIs provide wind forecasts accessible for pre-mission UAV trajectory planning. But systematic biases of 25m/s are commonly found in tropical coastal environments, directly impacting energy efficiency and safety. In this paper, a closed-loop system is proposed that incorporates IMU and airspeed sensor measurements with Bayesian forecast correction for real-time update of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and trajectory planning. Using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), forecast bias and variance are addressed at each UAV waypoint. If the updated CVaR0.95 exceeds a threshold, warm start RRT* is utilized for trajectory planning within computational constraints. The proposed method is evaluated using a 1.94 km Sundarbans mission with synthetic wind data with known bias, achieving 72.0% RMSE reduction (2.040.57m/s), 12.6 % CVaR risk reduction, and 12.0 % energy savings versus the uncorrected baseline. EKF bias estimation achieves 79.6 % accuracy within five waypoints, ensuring reliable correction for the rest of the mission.


Keywords

Journal or Conference Name
2026 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Quantum Photonics, Artificial Intelligence and Networking, QPAIN 2026

Publication Year
2026

Indexing
scopus