This study develops the first fragility function-based probabilistic liquefaction hazard map for the Dhaka Metropolitan Development Plan (DMDP) area, assessing the probability of surficial manifestation and its impact on shallow foundations. A probabilistic framework was applied using Standard Cone Penetration Test (SCPT) data from 400 locations covering 1530 km2, integrating the latest site-specific Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. Fragility functions were used to estimate the probability of minor, moderate, and severe liquefaction-induced ground and foundation damage. The study also categorized susceptibility based on the two predominant soil types: Floodplain deposits and Madhupur Clay. The results indicate higher liquefaction susceptibility in floodplain deposits, with up to 68% of cases exhibiting moderate-to-severe manifestations, whereas Madhupur Clay exhibits lower risk and more predictable responses. Foundation damage probability exceeds 40% in 64% of floodplain cases, with severe manifestations localized in geotechnically vulnerable zones. Findings emphasize site-specific seismic risk mitigation, guiding urban zoning, land-use planning, and infrastructure resilience. The study supports updating BNBC, 2020 to incorporate fragility-function-based risk assessments. By combining deterministic modeling with probabilistic approaches, this research enhances liquefaction hazard prediction and provides a replicable framework for seismically vulnerable regions. Future work should integrate machine learning and remote sensing to refine hazard assessments and disaster resilience.